Daily Stock Pick: May 18th, 2022

Fears are growing that the Fed’s aggressiveness will strain a vulnerable economy and that the Fed’s attempt to beat inflation could inadvertently push the economy into a recession.  

“A recession at this stage is almost inevitable,” said former Fed vice chair Roger Ferguson.  “It’s a witch’s brew, and the probability of a recession I think is unfortunately very, very high because the Fed’s tool is crude, and all they can control is aggregate demand.”  

The big question now is – how do you protect your portfolio from what’s coming?  Today we’ll discuss the risk-on/risk-off strategy that the pros on Wall Street use when they want to benefit from movement in both stocks and treasuries.  



Global X Adaptive U.S. Risk Management ETF (ONOF) is a passively-managed portfolio that provides exposure to the S&P 500 when conditions look more favorable but rotates into short-term (1-3 year) Treasuries when market conditions look bad. 

The methodology for this fund is a little more complicated than what you find in the typical ETF. The idea is that it looks at various technical indicators to make an allocation decision. The index is based on historical data from two short-term indicators: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the level of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), as well as two long-term indicators: 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and market drawdown percentage.

The trigger threshold for each signal is based on a predetermined Z-score. If the portfolio is in equities, it takes three negative indicators to switch the exposure to Treasuries. Once in Treasuries, it takes two positive indicators to switch to equities, thus, creating a higher hurdle to get out of the market than it is to enter. Based on the strategy, turnover in the portfolio should be higher than a buy-and-hold approach.

Where to invest $1,000 right now...

Before you consider buying ONOF, you'll want to see this.

Investing legend, Keith Kohl just revealed his #1 stock for 2022...

And it's not ONOF.

Jeff Bezos, Peter Thiel, and the Rockefellers are betting a colossal nine figures on this tiny company that trades publicly for $5.

Keith say’s he thinks investors will be able to turn a small $50 stake into $150,000.

Find that to be extraordinary?

Click here to watch his presentation, and decide for yourself...

But you have to act now, because a catalyst coming in a few weeks is set to take this company mainstream... And by then, it could be too late.

Click here to find out the name and ticker of Keith's #1 pick...